Market Comment – Thursday, 28 November 2024
Today’s focus is on inflation data and speeches, with markets awaiting German CPI figures at 13:00 GMT and Japan’s Tokyo CPI data later. RBA Governor Bullock’s speech earlier did not significantly impact the Australian dollar. Energy prices remain under pressure, and precious metals are flat, while the US dollar shows mixed movements across major currency pairs.
Key Data Out Today
- RBA Governor Bullock Speech: No major surprises, the AUD remained steady with minimal movement following the event.
- German CPI (Nov, Preliminary): Monthly CPI expected at -0.2%, a sharp drop from the previous 0.4%. Yearly CPI forecasted at 2.2%, with the Harmonized Index (HICP) projected at 2.6%.
- Japan Tokyo CPI (Nov): Yearly CPI for Tokyo, a leading indicator for national inflation, will be closely watched later tonight.
Energy & Precious Metals
- Crude Oil and Brent: WTI crude dipped 0.11% to $68.65, while Brent fell 0.10% to $72.76, as concerns over weak global demand outweighed support from OPEC cuts.
- Gold: Flat at $2,638.05 per ounce, gaining 0.04%, with traders awaiting inflation updates.
- Silver: Fell 0.74% to $29.88, continuing its recent underperformance relative to gold.
Currency Movements
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD: Down 0.15% to 1.0551 as markets eye German CPI data later today. The euro has gained 0.78% this week, driven by hopes of stabilizing Eurozone inflation.
GBP/USD
- GBP/USD: Slightly weaker at 1.2662, down 0.14%, as sentiment around the pound remains mixed ahead of further US data.
AUD/USD
- AUD/USD: Down 0.12% to 0.6489, with the Australian dollar under pressure despite no surprises in Governor Bullock’s speech.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD: Fell 0.24% to 0.5889, reflecting a cautious tone around risk-sensitive currencies.
USD/JPY
- USD/JPY: Gained 0.33% to 151.59, as the yen weakened on expectations of dovish policy from the Bank of Japan.
USD/CNY
- USD/CNY: Up 0.15% to 7.2560, with the yuan under mild pressure amid subdued Chinese growth sentiment.
USD/CHF
- USD/CHF: Rose 0.13% to 0.8832, reflecting slight dollar strength.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD: Flat at 1.4021, with the loonie holding steady as oil prices remain subdued.
USD/MXN
- USD/MXN: Dropped 0.94% to 20.40, as the peso strengthened on improved risk sentiment.
USD/INR
- USD/INR: Rose 0.06% to 84.48, as the rupee remains near record lows amidst ongoing dollar strength.
Things to Keep a Watch On:
- German CPI (13:00 GMT): Inflation data will be pivotal for Eurozone monetary policy expectations and EUR movements.
- Tokyo CPI (23:30 GMT): Tokyo’s inflation figures could offer clues about Japan’s economic trajectory and JPY direction.
- Energy Prices: Continued focus on natural gas, as volatility persists amidst mixed demand signals.
- Gold and Silver Trends: Key inflation readings today may sway safe-haven demand.
- USD/MXN and USD/INR: Watch for further peso strength or rupee weakness as market sentiment and dollar dynamics evolve.