Market Overview: November 8, 2024
Today, markets are absorbing the recent 0.25% rate cuts from both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve, bringing rates to 4.75% for both. This rate adjustment is influencing currency movements and risk sentiment globally. Here’s what to watch today, with significant data releases from Canada and the U.S. and ongoing shifts in energy and metals markets.
Key Data Out Today
- EUR: ECB’s Cipollone speech at 10:45.
- GBP: BoE’s Pill speech at 12:15.
- CAD:
- Average Hourly Wages (YoY) for October, previous: 4.5%.
- Net Change in Employment (Oct), forecast: 25K, previous: 46.7K.
- Unemployment Rate (Oct), forecast: 6.6%, previous: 6.5%.
- USD:
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Nov) PREL, forecast: 71, previous: 70.5.
- UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation (Nov) PREL, previous: 3%.
- Fed speeches from Bowman at 16:00 and Musalem at 19:30.
Energy & Precious Metals
- Crude Oil: $71.82, down 0.75% as of 06:17. Weekly gain at 3.36%.
- Brent Oil: $75.20, down 0.57%. Market faces mixed sentiments as supply cuts loom but demand concerns persist.
- Natural Gas: $2.70, up 0.09%. Weekly and monthly gains with winter demand anticipated.
- Gold prices have eased to $2,691.24, down 0.58%, as the U.S. dollar strengthened post-rate cut.
- Silver dropped 1.26% to $31.61, facing pressure from reduced industrial demand and stronger USD.
Currency Movements
- EUR/USD is trading at 1.0777, down 0.17% after the Fed’s rate cut. Market is cautious ahead of ECB’s speeches.
- GBP/USD holds at 1.2966, down 0.13%, with traders closely watching BoE’s Pill for forward guidance.
- AUD/USD shows resilience at 0.6650, down 0.37%, benefiting from positive domestic data.
- NZD/USD stands at 0.6005, down 0.27%, with recent employment data impacting sentiment.
- USD/JPY slightly lower at 152.89, down 0.19%, as yen sees modest support following rate announcements.
- USD/CNY at 7.1613, up 0.05%, reflecting cautious trade as China shows steady demand.
- USD/CHF trades at 0.8733, up 0.06%, with safe-haven demand.
- USD/CAD is at 1.3886, up 0.13%, as markets await Canadian employment data.
Things to Keep a Watch On:
- Fed Speeches – Watch for Bowman and Musalem’s comments later today for insights into Fed’s next steps.
- Canadian Employment Data – A major influence on CAD today, with wage growth and job numbers due.
- Market Reaction to Rate Cuts – Continuing adjustments to BoE and Fed decisions, especially in FX pairs.
- Sentiment Index and Inflation Data from U.S. – Could hint at inflation expectations and consumer confidence.
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