October 2024 Market Recap: Key Economic Updates
Today’s calendar brings a few key events to watch, especially around employment data and central bank speeches. Here’s a breakdown of the most important updates.
Key Economic Events:
- EUR Unemployment Rate (Aug): The Eurozone unemployment rate is holding steady at 6.4%, unchanged from the previous reading. This signals stable employment conditions in the Eurozone, with no surprises for the markets.
- USD ADP Employment Change (Sep): Expectations are high with a consensus of 120K job additions, up from 99K in August. This report is often seen as a precursor to the official non-farm payrolls report. Any significant deviation could move the dollar.
The day will see multiple speeches from key central bank figures. These include the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Which could provide clues about future monetary policy direction.
Currency Movements:
- EUR/USD: The euro is up 0.04% at 1.10691 today, though it has declined 0.55% over the week. Despite the daily rise, the pair has struggled recently. Traders await more signals from European Central Bank speeches and economic data. Over the past year, the euro remains up 5.76% against the dollar.
- GBP/USD: The pound has seen a slight increase of 0.10%, trading at 1.32872. While the pair is down 0.21% for the week, it has shown strength on a yearly basis, up 10.03%. Positive UK housing data and stable economic indicators have kept the pound resilient, though upcoming U.S. data could still influence the pair.
- AUD/USD: The Australian dollar is performing well today, up 0.20% at 0.68932. Weekly gains stand at 1.07%, driven by stronger retail sales data and solid trade ties with China. Over the past month, the Aussie has gained 2.67% and is up 9.38% year-on-year.
- NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar has risen by 0.15% to 0.62912. Weekly gains are at 0.57%, reflecting steady momentum. The Kiwi dollar continues to benefit from positive sentiment around commodity currencies, although global risk aversion could limit further upside.
- USD/JPY: The yen has weakened slightly, with the pair trading at 143.968, up 0.17% on the day. However, the yen has appreciated 0.51% over the week, reflecting ongoing volatility. On a yearly basis, the yen remains down 3.39%, as expectations for further U.S. monetary tightening have kept the dollar strong.
- USD/CNY: The Chinese yuan is trading down 0.16% at 7.01970, showing signs of strength as the dollar softens. Over the week, the yuan has fallen 0.21%, but it remains down 4.09% year-on-year. Ongoing economic challenges in China, paired with central bank interventions, continue to influence this pair.
- USD/CHF: The Swiss franc is showing minor strength, with the pair down 0.05% to 0.84578. The franc has gained 0.57% over the week, reflecting its role as a safe-haven currency amid global uncertainty. Year-on-year, the franc is up 8.13% against the dollar.
- USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar is trading flat today at 1.34840, with no movement over the week. The loonie has seen a 0.44% decline over the month but remains down 1.63% year-on-year, largely due to fluctuations in oil prices.
- USD/MXN: The Mexican peso is down 0.12% at 19.6041 today, continuing its weekly decline of 0.20%. Despite recent losses, the peso is up 8.52% over the past year, making it one of the stronger-performing emerging market currencies.
- USD/INR: The Indian rupee is up 0.11%, trading at 83.9710. The rupee has gained 0.34% for the week but remains largely flat on a monthly basis. Over the past year, the rupee is up 0.91% against the dollar, showing relative stability despite global economic challenges.
Energy Market Update:
- Crude Oil is trading at 71.067 USD/bbl, up 1.77% for the day and 1.99% on the week. Brent Crude also climbed by 1.62% to 74.754 USD/bbl. Rising oil prices indicate stronger demand, with supply concerns still looming.
- Natural Gas is up 0.71% to 2.9166 USD/MMBtu, adding to the weekly increase of 3.54%. Demand for gas continues to grow, supporting the price rise.
- UK Gas also surged by 1.56% today and has jumped 10.65% for the week, now trading at 99.5899 GBp/thm, reflecting higher energy demand heading into the colder months in Europe.
Metals and Industrials:
- Gold is down 0.42% to 2649.15 USD/t.oz, while Silver slipped 0.60% to 31.178 USD/t.oz. Both precious metals have faced some profit-taking after strong rallies over the past month.
- Copper is trading at 4.5266 USD/Lbs, down slightly by 0.20%, but has shown a weekly gain of 2.10% on solid demand.
- Steel prices in China surged by 6.78% to 3417 CNY/T, boosted by continued infrastructure development demand.
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