Forex Market Analysis: Key Data Impacts on Currency Pairs
Daily Forex Market Commentary – September 26, 2024
Today’s focus will be on key U.S. data releases at 1:30 PM. First up is the Durable Goods Orders for August, expected to drop by 2.6% after last month’s surprising 9.9% spike. We’ll also see the final Q2 GDP Growth Rate, forecasted to hold steady at 3.0%, down from a previous 1.4%. These releases could set the tone for the U.S. dollar and influence major FX pairs throughout the day.
Currencies Overview
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair saw a modest uptick, climbing by 0.19% to trade at 1.11507 as of this morning. European traders are awaiting the release of the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for October. The consensus expects an improvement from -22.0 to -19. If the data aligns with or exceeds expectations, we could see further strengthening of the euro against the dollar.
GBP/USD
The pound has gained some ground, with GBP/USD rising 0.26% to 1.33486. With UK gas prices up by 5.21% this week, the energy sector’s inflationary impact is a factor. Additionally, recent political stability has supported the pound’s steady climb. Keep an eye on upcoming economic releases from the UK. They will play a big role in how this pair moves next.
AUD/USD
The Aussie has been performing well, rising 0.63% to 0.68620. This comes after the Monthly CPI Indicator for August showed inflation at 2.7%, beating expectations of 2.8%. Inflation is easing faster than anticipated. This may push the Reserve Bank of Australia to take a less hawkish stance. Such a stance could bring more stability to the Aussie.
USD/JPY
Despite movements in other major pairs, USD/JPY remained relatively flat today, hovering around 144.720. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak later today. The market is playing it safe. It is waiting for potential cues on monetary policy direction. Given the sensitivity of the yen to U.S. interest rate expectations, any hawkish signals could push this pair higher.
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Commodity-Driven Currencies
The commodity currencies, such as the NZD and CAD, have also been in play. The NZD/USD pair is up 0.39%, while the USD/CAD slipped 0.13%. Rising oil prices are likely contributing to CAD strength, despite broader volatility in the crude markets. Brent crude is down 2.19%, trading at $71.85 per barrel.
Natural gas continues its rally, with UK gas prices up 5.21% over the week, and U.S. natural gas prices increased by 0.71% today, reflecting a 20.83% surge over the past week. This sharp rise is worth keeping an eye on, as it may impact energy-sensitive currencies like CAD.
Looking Ahead
- Looking ahead, tomorrow we have some key data releases to watch. Starting at 7:00 AM, the UK House Prices (Nationwide) will be in focus, both month-on-month and year-on-year. These figures are crucial for understanding the housing market’s trajectory, with the previous YoY data showing a 2.4% increase.
- Later in the day, at 10:00 AM, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index will be updated. The previous figure sits at -13.4. This will give us an indication of the overall sentiment within the EU region.
- Finally, U.S. Personal Income and Consumption figures will be released at 1:30 PM. They will offer important clues about consumer spending. These figures will also hint at inflation in the world’s largest economy.