Dollar in Focus Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls
Daily Currency Update
The dollar is slightly softer this morning as attention turns to today’s U.S. labour market report. Non-farm payrolls, wage growth, and the unemployment rate are all due this afternoon and could set the tone for the dollar into next week. The euro and pound are firmer, while commodity currencies are benefiting from a mild rebound in risk appetite.
Key Events Today
- Germany’s manufacturing PMI came in slightly better than expected at 48.4, but still in contraction territory.
- Eurozone inflation (CPI and core) is due at 09:00, along with the latest unemployment rate.
- The U.S. labour market will be under the microscope at 12:30 with nonfarm payrolls, wage growth, and the unemployment rate all released simultaneously.
- U.S. factory orders are due at 14:00.
Commodities
- Oil is flat this morning. Brent trades at $62.10 and WTI at $59.17 after a rough week of selling. Prices remain under pressure from high inventories and softening demand outlooks.
- Gold has risen to $3,260.35, up 0.71% on the day. Silver is also firmer at $32.56, helped by the weaker dollar tone and ongoing geopolitical concerns.
Currency Snapshot – Expected Ranges
- EUR/USD: 1.1285 – 1.1355 ▲
The euro is higher ahead of Eurozone inflation data. Momentum may build if U.S. jobs data misses. - GBP/USD: 1.3250 – 1.3325 ▲
Sterling is steady. It could extend gains if U.S. figures disappoint later today. - AUD/USD: 0.6375 – 0.6435 ▲
Aussie is firmer, helped by mild risk-on tone and slightly improved sentiment in Asia. - NZD/USD: 0.5895 – 0.5955 ▲
The Kiwi is bouncing. Dollar softness and stable risk conditions support price action. - USD/JPY: 144.50 – 145.70 ▬
The pair is consolidating. U.S. yields and the jobs data will drive the next move. - USD/CHF: 0.8230 – 0.8300 ▼
The franc is recovering slightly with gold strength. Dollar remains capped for now. - USD/CAD: 1.3780 – 1.3860 ▼
CAD is firmer as oil stabilises. Market focus shifts to U.S. jobs before next week’s BoC. - USD/MXN: 19.5400 – 19.6300 ▼
The peso is slightly stronger. Carry flows remain supportive, especially with dollar under pressure. - USD/INR: 83.80 – 84.35 ▼
The rupee is firmer. Local equities are stable and demand for USD is easing into the weekend.
Market Outlook
Today’s nonfarm payrolls report will be the main driver of price action into the weekend. A weaker reading may reinforce market expectations of Fed easing later in the year. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are seeing some recovery as oil stabilises and gold ticks higher. Euro and sterling may benefit further if U.S. data comes in below forecast.