Euro Steady Ahead of Inflation and GDP Data
Daily Currency Update
The euro is holding firm this morning as markets await key inflation and growth data from Germany and the wider Eurozone. The dollar is little changed ahead of several major U.S. releases this afternoon, including GDP, Core PCE, and jobs data. Sterling remains near recent highs, supported by cautious comments from the Bank of England.
Key Events Today
- Germany has already posted a rebound in retail sales, up 2.2% year-on-year for March.
- Preliminary German and Eurozone GDP figures are due this morning.
- Eurozone CPI and the harmonised inflation print follow shortly after.
- U.S. releases include ADP Employment, Core PCE, and Q1 GDP.
- President Trump is scheduled to speak twice later today, which could prompt fresh policy headlines.
Commodities
- Oil is under pressure again this morning. Brent is trading at $62.32 and WTI at $59.45 as concerns over global demand weigh on sentiment.
- Gold is slightly lower at $3,311.09, while silver is flat at $32.91. Both metals are seeing subdued interest as markets await direction from today’s inflation data.
Currency Snapshot – Expected Ranges
- EUR/USD: 1.1325 – 1.1405 ▼ The euro is steady, but weak CPI or GDP could renew calls for an ECB rate cut.
- GBP/USD: 1.3345 – 1.3425 ▼ Sterling holds near recent highs. Traders await U.S. data for the next directional cue.
- AUD/USD: 0.6365 – 0.6435 ▲ The Aussie has edged higher, supported by modest commodity stability.
- NZD/USD: 0.5900 – 0.5975 ▲ The Kiwi is slightly firmer. Any risk-on sentiment could offer more support.
- USD/JPY: 142.10 – 143.40 ▲ Dollar-yen remains firm with Treasury yields stable. U.S. data will set the tone.
- USD/CHF: 0.8205 – 0.8290 ▲ The franc is weaker. Gold softness and improved sentiment limit demand for haven assets.
- USD/CAD: 1.3795 – 1.3875 ▲ Oil weakness is capping CAD gains. The pair holds just below recent highs.
- USD/MXN: 19.5100 – 19.6300 ▬ The peso is stable. No major domestic data expected today.
- USD/INR: 84.65 – 85.20 ▬ The rupee remains in a tight range, tracking global dollar direction.
Market Outlook
Today’s data will give markets a clearer view on growth and inflation trends in both the Eurozone and the U.S. A softer GDP or inflation print from the U.S. may weigh on the dollar, while signs of Eurozone weakness could increase ECB rate cut bets. Either way, the second half of today’s session may bring more price action.