Market Comment – Friday, 29 November 2024
Today’s spotlight is on German and Eurozone inflation data, retail sales, and Canadian GDP figures. German retail sales posted a sharp monthly decline, adding pressure to the euro. Meanwhile, energy markets are under pressure, and precious metals are regaining some ground. Currency markets are showing notable movement, particularly USD/JPY, which has dropped further as the yen strengthens.

Key Data Out Today
- German Retail Sales (Oct): Dropped sharply by -1.5% MoM, worse than the expected -0.3%. YoY retail sales also fell by 1%, adding to concerns about consumer spending.
- German Unemployment Data (Nov): Unemployment rate forecasted at 6.1% and unemployment change expected to show an increase of 20k, reflecting a stagnant labor market.
- Eurozone CPI (Nov, Preliminary): Harmonised CPI expected at 2.3% YoY, while the monthly figure is forecasted at 0.3%. Core inflation remains in focus.
- Canadian GDP (Q3): Key economic data later today, with quarterly growth expected at 0.5% and annualised growth projected at 1%.
Energy & Precious Metals
- Crude Oil and Brent: WTI crude fell 0.58% to $68.53, while Brent dropped 1.15% to $72.22. Concerns about weaker global demand continue to weigh on prices.
- Gold: Rose 0.82% to $2,660.31 per ounce, supported by dollar weakness and safe-haven buying.
- Silver: Jumped 1.39% to $30.66, showing stronger performance compared to gold.
Currency Movements
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD: Up 0.33% to 1.0589, supported by anticipation of Eurozone inflation data. However, weak German retail sales may limit gains.
GBP/USD
- GBP/USD: Gained 0.40% to 1.2738, as the pound strengthens on improved sentiment and anticipation of the Financial Stability Report.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD
AUD/USD and NZD/USD: Both currencies are higher, with AUD/USD up 0.41% to 0.6526 and NZD/USD rising 0.59% to 0.5926, reflecting renewed risk appetite.
USD/JPY
- USD/JPY: Dropped 1.24% to 149.66, as the yen gains sharply amid global risk aversion.
USD/CNY
- USD/CNY: Down 0.26% to 7.2311, as the yuan strengthens slightly on hopes of stabilization in China.
USD/CHF
- USD/CHF: Fell 0.36% to 0.8799, reflecting weaker dollar dynamics.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD: Down 0.17% to 1.3991, with the loonie supported ahead of Canadian GDP data.
USD/MXN
- USD/MXN: Gained 0.18% to 20.47, with the peso under slight pressure.
USD/INR
- USD/INR: Edged up 0.03% to 84.50, as the rupee remains near record lows against the dollar.
Things to Keep a Watch On:
- Eurozone Inflation (10:00 GMT): Harmonized CPI and core inflation figures will influence ECB expectations and EUR movements.
- Canadian GDP (13:30 GMT): Growth figures will be crucial for USD/CAD movements and broader risk sentiment.
- Energy Prices: Oil and natural gas remain volatile; further price changes could ripple across markets.
- USD/JPY and USD/INR: Watch these pairs closely, as yen gains momentum while the rupee hovers near record lows.
- Gold and Silver: Precious metals remain in focus as inflation data and dollar movements shape safe-haven demand.