Currency Movements: USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY – October 4, 2024
Today’s markets are largely focused on U.S. labor market data, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rates, and average hourly earnings. Followed by a few speeches out later on in the day from the the ECB, UK and U.S.
Key Economic Events:
- U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): Expected at 140K, slightly below the previous 142K. Any significant deviation from this number could prompt volatility in major USD pairs.
- U.S. Unemployment Rate (Sep): Consensus is at 4.2%, in line with the previous reading. This figure will influence market sentiment about the U.S. labor market.
- U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (Sep): Monthly growth is expected to slow to 0.3%, with yearly earnings expected to hold steady at 3.8% YoY.
Currency Movements:
- EUR/USD: The pair is down 0.06% today, trading at 1.10290. The euro has weakened over the week, down 1.20%, as market participants await U.S. labor data for further direction. Eurozone PMI figures earlier in the week had limited impact on the pair.
- GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is slightly up by 0.03% to 1.31327. Despite this, the pound has seen a weekly decline of 1.79% as traders are cautious about further economic developments in the UK, while awaiting more clarity from U.S. employment data.
- AUD/USD: The Australian dollar is down 0.05%, trading at 0.68469. It has declined by 0.80% over the week, though it remains positive on a monthly basis, up 1.58%. Traders are closely watching U.S. data to see if the dollar’s strength will continue.
- NZD/USD: The Kiwi dollar is down 0.08% at 0.62117, with a weekly decline of 2.03%. Weaker global risk sentiment has hit the Kiwi, and markets are closely watching U.S. economic indicators to gauge further movement.
- USD/JPY: The USD/JPY has dropped 0.43% today to 146.212, but it is still up 2.82% for the week. The pair is reflecting mixed sentiment ahead of the U.S. data, as investors assess potential shifts in Fed policy based on labor market performance.
- USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair is down 0.11%, trading at 0.85091. Over the week, the dollar has gained 1.25%against the Swiss franc, reflecting strong USD demand as traders await U.S. employment figures.
- USDCNY: The USD/CNY is trading up 0.15% at 7.05843. The yuan remains under pressure, with the pair up 1.11% for the week as concerns over China’s economic performance continue to weigh on the currency.
Commodities and Energy:
- Crude Oil is trading at 73.638 USD/bbl, down 0.10% today, but it’s up 8.01% for the week. Brent crude is also down slightly at 77.537 USD/bbl, falling 0.11% today, but rising 8.38% this week. Market focus remains on potential supply constraints and U.S. economic data.
- Natural Gas is down 0.23% at 2.9632 USD/MMBtu, though it has risen 31.46% over the month. The increased demand ahead of winter has contributed to the upward momentum.
- Gold is up 0.38% at 2665.78 USD/t.oz, showing resilience as a safe haven, especially with U.S. data releases due. The metal is also up 5.90% for the month, reflecting ongoing investor demand.
- Silver has risen 0.66% to 32.255 USD/t.oz, continuing its strong performance, with a 54.24% increase year-on-year.
- Copper is up 0.19% at 4.5105 USD/Lbs, showing modest gains despite a slight weekly decline of 0.74%. The metal remains a strong performer overall, up 27.06% year-on-year.
Key Market Movements to Watch:
- U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate reports are due at 12:30 PM GMT. They are expected to be the key drivers of today’s markets today.
- BoE’s Pill Speech and multiple Fed speeches will provide further clues on central bank policy.
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