Currency Movements: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY – October 3, 2024

Written by

Anthony Bull

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Daily Currency Update

Currency Movements: USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY – October 3, 2024

Today’s markets are reacting to data across Europe and the U.S., including Swiss inflation, Eurozone PMIs, and U.S. jobless claims. Here’s a breakdown of the major currency pairs and commodities:

Key Economic Events:

Swiss CPI (Sep): Expected to hold steady at 1.1% YoY. A higher or lower print could move the USD/CHF pair, as inflation data often influences central bank policy decisions.
Eurozone PMI (Sep): The HCOB Services PMI for Germany is expected to remain around 54.0, and the Eurozone Composite PMI is forecasted at 50.6. A significant deviation could lead to volatility in the EUR/USD pair, especially if growth concerns deepen.
U.S. Jobless Claims (Sep 27): Forecasted at 220K, a slightly higher figure than last week’s 218K. If claims exceed expectations, this could signal a cooling labor market, impacting the USD across various pairs. This will play a key indicator for tomorrows Nonfarm Payrolls.
The U.S. ISM Services PMI (Sep), scheduled for release at 14:00 today, is forecasted at 51.7, slightly above the previous reading of 51.5. This data will provide important insights into the health of the U.S. services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while anything below suggests contraction.

Currency Movements:

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair is down 0.19%, trading at 1.10250. The euro has seen a 1.35% weekly decline, reflecting weaker-than-expected Eurozone growth and a stronger dollar as U.S. economic data continues to come in strong.
GBP/USD: The pound has dropped 0.56% today, trading at 1.31889. It has fallen 1.65% over the week as the UK economy faces headwinds, despite a 0.35% monthly gain. U.S. economic data continues to weigh on the pair.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar is down 0.40%, trading at 0.68563. While the Aussie has gained 2.10% over the month, weaker global commodity demand and market caution are contributing to its 0.52% weekly loss.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar is down 0.44%, trading at 0.62308. With a weekly decline of 1.56%, the Kiwi dollar is struggling amid weaker global risk sentiment.
USD/JPY: The yen has weakened slightly, with the USD/JPY pair up 0.05%, trading at 146.649. The yen has appreciated by 1.07% over the week, reflecting recent volatility.
USD/CNY: The USD/CNY pair is up 0.15% at 7.04789, showing modest gains. The yuan remains down 0.81% for the month, amid ongoing concerns over China’s economic challenges.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc is flat at 0.84999, showing no significant movement today, though it has gained 0.43% over the week. The pair is stable as Swiss CPI data met expectations, providing little impetus for further movement.

Commodities and Energy:

Crude Oil is trading at 71.093 USD/bbl, up 1.42% for the day and 5.04% for the week. Brent crude is also higher at 74.837 USD/bbl, rising 1.27%. Concerns over supply shortages are keeping prices elevated.
Natural Gas is trading at 2.9260 USD/MMBtu, up 1.39% today and 6.28% over the week, reflecting rising demand ahead of the colder months.
Gold prices have slipped 0.27% to 2653.18 USD/t.oz, but the precious metal remains strong, up 45.69% year-on-year as investors continue to seek safety.
Silver has dropped 0.92% to 31.554 USD/t.oz today. However, it remains one of the best-performing metals, up 50.55% over the past year.
Copper is down 0.55%, trading at 4.5705 USD/Lbs, but the metal remains resilient, up 13.76% over the month as demand continues to rise.

Key Market Movements to Watch:

U.S. Factory Orders (Aug) report later today.
U.S. ISM Services PMI and employment data for further insights into labor market strength.

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