Market Commentary: September 27, 2024

The markets have seen quite a bit of action over the past 24 hours. This was driven by key data and developments from the U.S. and Japan.

U.S. Durable Goods and GDP

Yesterday’s U.S. Durable Goods Orders for August came in flat at 0%, below the forecasted -2.6% but far from last month’s 9.9% spike. The stagnant reading suggests a cooling in demand for big-ticket items. Meanwhile, the U.S. GDP Growth Rate for Q2 was finalized at 3%, slightly above expectations of 2.9% and significantly up from Q1’s 1.4%growth. This stronger-than-expected performance has likely contributed to a more positive outlook for the dollar.

The Unemployment Claims report, however, showed that 218K Americans filed for claims, missing the forecast of 225K. Although not a massive deviation, it points to a slightly softening labor market.

Japan’s CPI and UK Housing Market Data

Early this morning, Japan released its Tokyo CPI, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, a slight dip from the previous 2.6%. The Tokyo Core CPI held steady at 2%, in line with expectations. These inflation numbers reflect a cooling in consumer prices, which may influence the Bank of Japan’s policy decisions in the coming weeks.

In the UK, we’re awaiting the Nationwide House Prices data, both month-on-month and year-on-year. With the previous annual figure showing a 2.4% increase, this release could signal how well the housing market is holding up amid rising interest rates.

Currency Movements

• EUR/USD dipped by 0.12%, trading at 1.11630 this morning. Despite recent fluctuations, it remains stable on a weekly basis. For those tracking the euro’s performance, check our currency calculator for live updates.
• The GBP/USD pair declined 0.22% to 1.33812 but is still up 0.45% for the week, reflecting the ongoing strength of the pound. For updated GBP rates, use our currency converter.
• AUD/USD slipped 0.28% to 0.68733, even though it has shown gains of 0.98% over the past week. The Australian dollar’s resilience can be attributed to recent CPI data, but today’s performance reflects broader market caution. Keep an eye on AUD trends with our currency tool.
• The NZD/USD fell 0.47% to 0.63006, showing some volatility but still up 1.01% on the week. For real-time NZD rates, visit our currency calculator.
• Meanwhile, the USD/JPY rose 0.82% to 146.276, as the yen continues to weaken amid expectations of higher U.S. rates. The yen’s decline is a trend worth watching, particularly as Japan’s inflation eases. Check the latest USD/JPY rates with our FX calculator.

Looking Ahead

Later today, we’ll get more insights from the Eurozone. We will review the Consumer Confidence Index. It is expected to remain low after the last reading of -13.4. Additionally, U.S. data on Personal Income and Consumer Sentiment will offer further clues on the state of the U.S. economy and how inflation is impacting consumer behavior.